Mizoramah ruihhlo ngai engzat nge awm?

Tun hnaiah Mizoram chu ziak leh chhiar thiam vekna state (full literacy state) tia puan kan ni a, India ramah hetiang dinhmun ni thei hmasa ber kan ni. Ziak leh chhiar thiam vekna han tih hian ram chhunga awm zawng zawngin kan thiam ta vek e tihna erawh a ni lo. NEP 2020 hnuaia Central scheme thar ULLAS–New India Literacy Programme danah chuan kum 15 chin chunglam ziak leh chhiar thiam 95% awmna chu full literacy state-a puan tur a ni a; Mizoramin an tiam chin aia sang 98.2% (PLFS) kan lo neih tak avangin he dinhmun hi kan nei ta a ni.

Mihring hmasawnna tehfung pawimawh tak pakhat chu literacy rate a ni a, kan teh zingin kan uluk ṭhin hle. Internet-ah Mizoram dinhmun bikte pawh han zawng ila, data thar hmuh tur ṭha tak a lo awm leh ṭhin. Chutiang bawkin Mizoramah ruihhlo khawih ṭhin engzat nge awm tih han zawng ve chin mah teh. Kuminah drug addict engzat nge awm ang? Damdawi bâr ṭhin nge tam anga inchiu ṭhin? Chhanna a vâng pharh mai ang. Heng tehfung pahnih hi zirchianna nei tur chuan ram pum suar tluan ngai ve ve a ni a, tun dinhmunah erawh kan hmalakna chin a inang lo tih a chiang hle.

Kan dinhmun – zirchianna awm tawh aṭangin

Kum 2004 khan zirchianna neih a lo ni tawh a, mahse, hemi ṭum hian mipa dinhmun chauh zir chian a ni. Kum 2019 khan Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment chuan ‘National Survey on Extend and Pattern of Substance Use in India’ tiin a ṭum khatna atan ram pum huapin ruihhlo ngai dinhmun a zir chiang a. December 2017 – October 2018 chhungin India rama state leh UT zawng zawngah district 186-a in 2,00,111 tlawh chhuakin, mi 4,73,569 an kâwm a. Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) hmangin district 135-a ruihhlo ngai 72,642 an kâwm leh bawk. He zirchianna hi vawiin thlenga kan ram dinhmun leh kan state dinhmun hriat theihna bul leh awm chhun a la ni ta reng a ni.

He zirchianna report, Magnitude on Substance Use in India, 2019-in a tarlan danah chuan, ruihhlo zingah zu kaihhnawiha buai an tam ber. 14.6% chuan zu an in a, chung zingah chuan kum 18-49 leh mipa (95%) an tam ber. Zu bikah chuan Mizoram dinhmun a ṭha angreng hle! Cannabis – ganja leh a kaihhnawih hmang 2.8% an awm a, mipa leh kum 18 chung lam an tam ber; Mizoram chu a sang lama paruknaah kan awm. Opiod (opium aṭanga siam ruihhlo, no. 4 tia kan hriat lar leh adt.) hi ram pumah 2.1% hmangtu an awm a; India ram state zingah Mizoramah hmangtu tam berin, 6.9% zet kan awm! Heng bakah hian sedative leh inhalant drugs hmang ṭhinah pawh top-5 kan ni leh bawk.

Kum 2017 khan Social Welfare Department hnuaiah Mizoram chhunga ruihhlo ngaite dinhmun zirchianna ‘Baseline Survey on Extend & Pattern of Drug Use in Mizoram’ neih a ni. He zirchhianna hi RDS hmang bawka neih a ni a, Mizoram kil hrang hranga ruihhlo ngai 2,633-te kawm an ni. Report-in a tarlan angin, ruihhlo chi hrang hrang zingah zuk leh hmuam, opiod leh a kaihhnawih amphetamine type stimulants (ATS) leh sedatives hmang an tam ber.

Heng zirchianna pahnih neih a nih aṭangin kum pawh a lo vei ta nual a, thil tam tak a lo danglam tawh. Vawiina kan ram dinhmun hi eng chiah nge a nih tih pawh hriat hleihtheih a ni ta lo. Tun hnaiah ruihhlo ngai khawlaia teirawlài an tam thu news kaltlangin kan hre fo a, duty hrang hrangin chhun zan zawmin khawpui an ven a ngai ta hial! Heti lamah thawktute sawi danin drug addict khawlaia tei kual ṭhin hi mi 1,000 vel niin an sawi a; heng teirawlài chauh hi kan rama addict awmte chu an ni ang em?

Ruihhlo ngai (IDU) zat chhûtna

Kan dinhmun dik tak chu hriat chat theih a ni lo ang a, a bâwr vel erawh chhiarkawp dan hmanga chhût theih a ni. Chumi atan chuan data behchhan ṭha tak a awm hmasak a ṭul a, chutiang data ṭha tawk tak a awm chuan vawiina kan dinhmun leh nakina kan dinhmun ni thei mai tur chhût lâwkna (projection) a siam theih ta ṭhin a ni.

Mizorama ruihhlo ngai dinhmun zir chiang tur hian SWTA Dept. RTI chhanna (March 2025) behchhana chhût chhuah tum hmasak a ni. RTI chhanna March 2025-a kan dawnah chuan home leh centre hrang hranga ruihhlo ngai enkawl mek 4,050 an awm. Baseline Survey on Extend & Pattern of Drug Use in Mizoram 2017 data-ah ruihhlo ngai centre/home-a enkawl (in-patient treatment) chu 50.8% an ni. Heng data pahnih ṭangkawpa kan chhût chuan tun dinhmunah ruihhlo ngai mi 13,000+ an awm niin a lang. Nimahsela, chîk zawka han chhuiin RTI data hi a rintlak tawk lo a, zirchianna atana hman chi niin a lang lo.

Central sawrkarin a zirchianna ‘National Survey on Extend and Pattern of Substance Use in India 2019’ hmanga chhût ṭhat leh a ni a; he zirchhianna hian Mizorama ruihhlo kan hman dan a khaikhawm kim ṭha hle. Chung zingah chuan tunlaia kan buaina ber pakhat inchiu ṭhin (injecting drug user–IDU)-te dinhmun aṭangin kan chhui dawn a ni. Report-ah hian kum 2017-2018 chhungin Mizoramah inchiu ṭhin mi 28,288 an awm tih kan hre thei a; kum 2011 chhiarpuiah Mizoramah mi 10,91,014 kan awm a, kum 2001 chhiarpui aṭanga kan punna 22.78% a ni. Hemi anga kan ṭhan zel chuan kum 2018-ah mihring 12,59,491 kan awm tling tawh tura ngaih a ni. Heti a nih chuan kum 2018-ah hian Mizoram mihring awm zat aṭanga chhûtin 2.22% chu inchiu ṭhin tihna a ni. Kum tinin mihring kan pung zel a, ruihhlo ti kan punna pawh hi mihring kan tam ang zelin a pung ve tho tura ngaih a ni. Exponential Growth formula hmangin vawiina kan dinhmun leh kum lo kal leh tura kan dinhmun hetiang hian chhût chhuah theih a:

Exponential Growth: P (t) = P0 (1+r)t

Solution Link

Kum 2018 aṭang khan hmasawn lam pan zel tur angina han chhût ta ila. Kuminah (2025) chuan mi 14,87,434 vel kan awm tawh ang a, ruihhlo ngai (inchiu ṭhin) mi 36,818 an awm tura ngaih a ni. Tun dinhmunah chuan kum tin ruihhlo leh a ti ṭhin an pung zel niin a lang a, hetiang zela san lam kan pan chuan kum 2030-ah mi 16,68,246 awm tawhin, inchiu ṭhin (IDU) mi 44,993 vel kan awm tling tawh tura rin a ni. Kum 2018-ah mihring awm zat aṭanga 2.22% vel an inchiu laiin, kuminah chuan 2.47% a tling thei a, kum 2030-ah chuan 2.65% a tling chho hial tawh tura chhût a ni.

Ruihhlo vanga thihna

Mizoram Excise & Narcotics Department chuan ruihhlo vanga thihna hi uluk takin kum 1984 aṭangin a vawng tawh a. Mipa leh hmeichhia, ruihhlo an thihpui leh an kum bithliah chiang taka chhinchhiah ṭhin a ni. Chu data-in a tarlan dan chuan kum 2004-ah thihna thleng tam berin, mi 143 lai an thi a, hemi kuma mitthi zat 4,661 aṭanga chhûtin 3.06% a tling pha. Tun hnaiah chuan kum 2023-ah an tam leh hle a, mi 76 an thi a; nikum (2024) chhung khan mi 67 (mipa 58 leh hmeichhia 9) an thi leh a, kuminah (upto May 22) mi 29 an thi tawh bawk.

Ruihhlo vanga thihna chungchang data a awm ṭha viau a, chutih rualin, kum tina kan dinhmun a su nasa hle thung. A chângin a sang viau a, a hniam leh thut a, hei vang hian kumina kan dinhmun tur leh kum lo la awm tura kan dinhmun ni thei hi chhût lâwk thiam a har hle. Wang Tranform Formula hmangin kum 2025-a ruihhlo vanga thihna awm thei tura beisei zat leh kum lo la awm tura kan hmabak thihna awm theite lo chhût leh ila.

Wang Transform (Cummulative Probability Shift): F(x) = Φ(Φ−1(F(x))+λ) ṭ

Solution Link

Wang Formula hmanga kan hmuh chhuah theih chu kan data neih tharlâm ber (2025)-ah May thla thlengin mi 29 an thi tawh a. Wang Formula hmanga Z-score (mean of dataset – a laihawl tak) kan chhût chuan -3.98 a lo chhuak a, kum dang ang zela thihna a thleng a nih chuan kumin (2025) chhungin mi 72 an thi tling tura ngaih a ni. Ruihhloin min chîm reng a, ruihhlo ngai kan pun zel chuan kum 2030-ah kum khat khat chhungin mi 129 velin an thi tawh tura chhût a ni.

Tlangkawmna

A hma lama kan sawi tawh angin heng zirchianna nei tur hian data kimchang tak neih a ṭul a. Data hlui leh rintlak loh hman chuan kan thil zirbing leh kan hmuh chhuahte hian kawng dang an hawi daih thei a ni. Tun ṭuma kan data hman pawh hi kum 2019-a tlangzarh tawh kha a ni a, kumte a lo vei nual tawh bakah, a hun takah ram chhiarpui (census) kan neih loh avangin eng emaw chinah a buaithlak hle.

He zirchianna hi zaa zain a dik vek lo tih hre nawn leh ila. Vawiina kan hun tawng mek leh nakin lawka kan dinhmun tur rin/chhût lâwkna (projected) mai a ni. Heng kan chhût chhuah ai hian kan dinhmun a chhe viau thei a, rin aiin kan lo ṭha fê thei bawk. Tun hnaia kan dinhmun dik tak tuma’n kan hriat miau loh avangin zirchianna mumal zawk neih a ṭulzia erawh kan hre thei ang.

Ruihhlo ngaite chungchangah ram pum angin hun rei tak kan mutthlu tawh a, anmahni dap chhuah, enkawl leh sim tura puihna kawngah a hma aiin ngaihtuahna kan sen a ṭul. Ram hmasawnna tehfung dangte kan ngaih pawimawh ang bawkin ruihhlo ngai dinhmun hi thlahthlam loa kan vilven a ṭul ta hle. Kan ramah hian kum tin ruihhlo ngai an pung deuh deuh nge an kiam phah, kan inenkawlnate hian rah ṭha an chhuah em tihte hi chîk zawka kan ngaihven a hun tawh a ni. He full literacy state-ah hian ruihhlo ngai leh thihpui hi kan rin phak aiin a sang fê thei a nia!

References:
1. De Jong, P., & Marshall, C. (2006). Mortality projection based on the Wang transform. Department of Actuarial Studies, Macquarie University.
2. Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment. (2019). Magnitude of substance use in India.
3. Social Welfare Department (2017). Baseline survey on extent & pattern of drug use in Mizoram.
4. UNODC (2002). GAP toolkit module-3: Prevalence estimation – Indirect methods for estimating the size of the drug problem.

- Lal Sangzuala